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June 07, 2006

My World Cup predictions

I have almost no skill at predicting the outcome of sporting events, but especially something like the World Cup, where I know so little about most of the teams. Still, here goes nothing . . .

Group A consists of Poland (April Ranking: 29), Germany (19), Costa Rica (26), and Ecuador (39). Germany has to be the favorite to advance out of this group. Costa Rica is the next-best-ranked team, so (see above about knowing little about most of the teams) I assume they'll be the second to move into the next round.

Group B is England (10), Paraguay (33), Trinidad and Tobago (47), and Sweden (16). If England fail to advance through the first round, expect the government to fall the next day. Sweden has a very good team . . . and they've had England's number for the last few meetings between the teams, so I'd imagine they'll be the second team to advance from Group B.

Group C has Argentina (9), Côte d'Ivoire (32), Serbia and Montenegro (44), and the Netherlands (3). In this group, you have to go with the rankings: Netherlands first, Argentina second.

Group D has Mexico (4), Iran (23), Angola (57), and Portugal (7). Another group draw with obvious advancers (barring major upsets) of Mexico and Portugal.

Group E has Italy (13), Ghana (48), the United States (5T), and the Czech Republic (2). Let's all feel sorry for Ghana's luck of the draw in this group, shall we? On paper, they look to be already out of the tournament. The other three teams each have strong chances . . . anyone got a three-sided coin? I'll go with the safe picks of the Yanks and the Czechs.

Group F has Brazil (1), Croatia (23), Australia (42), and Japan (18). The top-ranked team in the world had better win through this round, but what little I've read leads me to expect Croatia to be the other team to advance from here.

Group G has France (8), Switzerland (35), Korea (29), and Togo (61). France obvious has to be favoured to move up, with Switzerland and Korea scrapping for the second spot. Togo is probably just happy to be here.

Group H has Spain (5T), Ukraine (45), Tunisia (21), and Saudi Arabia (34). Spain would have to do terribly badly not to advance out of this group — but there's a reason the games are played. The real race here is to be the second team to advance. Tunisia has a better ranking, but there's much less difference between them and the Saudi team, so it's not automatic for them.

Posted by Nicholas at June 7, 2006 12:50 PM
Comments
Hello, very interesting review, despite i can't agree that Poland will not go to the second round, maybe because i am from Poland, but well time will tell. Best Regards Posted by: Grzesiek at June 8, 2006 12:55 AM
I wouldn't be too surprised to see Poland advance, but I haven't been following the run-up to the World Cup, so I don't know how they've been playing lately. Also, my virtual landlord is of Polish descent, so I figured it would get him upset if I predicted Poland to lose in the round-robin phase! ;-) Posted by: Nicholas at June 8, 2006 08:31 AM
Boo, Grzesiek! Nicholas, you tell your landlord I worked in Kolobrzeg in 1991 and I am rooting for Poland into the second round at least. Then say: "Hoj me na Sobota? Hoj me na pivo!" Works every time. Posted by: Alan at June 8, 2006 05:59 PM


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