Austin Bay on the Ukraine Back-story

In the view of long-time (and old-time) Kremlinologists, the situation in Ukraine was triggered by part of a plan to re-create a super-power based on the heartland of the former USSR. Austin Bay summarizes:

In 1991, economics and population were the driving Kremlin interests in creating the RUBK [Russia-Ukraine-Belarus-Kazakhstan]. Super-power status takes money and a large number of people (how large is arguable, but 200 million is a plausible figure). The common economic interests linking Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan were a potential post-Cold War positive. Russia needed Ukraine's immense agricultural productivity. We saw Ukraine as benefiting from direct access to Russian natural resources.

The population issue, however, had a dicey dimension: Russian ethnicity. Russian ethnic communities were scattered throughout the former USSR, but eastern Ukraine and parts of Kazakhstan were intensely "Russified".

In 2004, the Kremlin of President Vladimir Putin still sees the economic benefits of a RUBK federation. He also sees it as a way to bring ethnic Russians back inside the borders of Mother Russia.

Belarus ("White Russia") remains a dictatorial basket case that might as well link up with Moscow. Perplexing Kazakhstan is another column. Installing pliant, pro-Moscow candidate Viktor Yanukovych as president was supposed to be Moscow's sneaky way of welding Ukraine to Russia.

Until pro-democracy demonstrations erupted in the aftermath [of] the rigged election, Moscow did not understand the degree of change in the Ukraine. Ukraine's neighbor, Poland, helps explain those changes. After 1989, Poland took the tough route to both political and economic liberalization. After 15 years the results are dramatic. Polish political confidence is extraordinary and the economy is a powerhouse compared to Russia.

Hat tip to Instapundit.