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September 07, 2004

Faulty Sampling Methodology?

Mark Steyn writes:

In Sunday's Observer, Robert McCrum observed: "Today, by some margin, George W Bush is the most despised figure in America." Really? The paper sent McCrum to America to interview nine novelists about the election. That's the first mistake right there: shipping a guy 3,000 miles to take the pulse of the nation by interviewing a bunch of guys who already agree with him. One of the reasons why the Bush-despisers will be waking up stunned on the morning of November 3 is because they spend way too much time talking to each other and sustaining each other's delusions.

This could indeed be the "Dewey Beats Truman" error cropping up again. By only listening to a closed circle of interested parties, you can come up with certainties that look utterly at variance with reality when those outside the circle are counted.

Posted by Nicholas at September 7, 2004 11:48 AM
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